Tag Archives: China

035 – China Rise: Good or Bad?

Intro

Today, many people in the United States look upon China with a growing a growing super power that is probably competing economically with the United States. Many scholars that harp on realpolitik and offensive realism like Mearshimer or Kagan would probably think that a Chinese rise in the asia-pacific region would probably spell doom for any American regional hegemony in the area along with a probable loss of forward deployed military presence on Okinawa, Japan, and South Korea. The “evil” Chinese – as the cx debate community would jokingly call them – would probably overtake the US in terms of military power one day.

All of the above are probably scenarios that many cant fathom as being “okay” for international affairs. An usurpation of status quo power? Unheard of!

But what if we look deep into the implications for a China rise? Would it be malevolent? Benign? Total hegemony or just increased influence? What would it mean for the status of American power? Will it decline? Or is the United States here to stay? Maybe it would be beneficial for everyone’s interests if the China gained power?

Let’s explore the possibilities.

Some Background Informatics

China is a country with a large variety of cultural backgrounds as well as political thought. Although some may think of the current policies of the Chinese Communist Party as representative of China as a whole, I think it may be just a good refresher to take a quick social and anthropological lesson regarding China itself. At least history right after the rise in the CCP.

Contrary to what most people believe, the population in China feel fairly satisfied with the government. Many actually believe that the events during Tian an men square were not justified during a time of “economic and political” instability. Moreover, although it seems that many in China do like the government, it seems strange that many also recognize the power that the government holds over the population. This, I feel is an important concept to grasp: the people willingly accept the power of the government – there is a strange sense of satisfaction in the majority of the population.

Moreover, culturally and socially, the people of China are extremely proud. Last names are a symbol throughout families and there is a goal of honoring the family name: this can be visibly seen as there is a focus on having male children (heirs) and the refusal of many married couples of having shared last names. Maiden names seem permanent.

Finally, a third thing that should be recognized is that China finds previously conquered or controlled land to be permanently theirs. With the experience of colonization by the British as well as invasion by the Japanese, it seems as if the Chinese have a certain complex against losing any sort of power or footholds of control. The Boxer Rebellion as well as the refusal to accept Taiwan as a sovereign nation and the belief of some that even Okinawa belongs to Chinese influence complicates as well as explain certain international behaviors of the state.

With these three things in mind, let’s begin.

Chinese Rise

China is currently gaining in power in a region currently dominated by Japan and South Korea (under the umbrella of US military power.) With economic force as well as shows of military power in during the 2007 ASAT test as well as other dogmatic behavior in response to US requests. What does it mean? Keeping in mind the “colonization complex” we can postulate that the Chinese probably don’t like US power and forward military presence in the region on Japan or South Korea. This makes sense; however, the United States also probably don’t want foreign aircraft carriers just a few thousand miles from the coast.

But China isnt as satisfied with US control as South Korea or Japan. China wants a little bit of regional hegemony. With a long history, a proud population, as well as a history of being controlled by western influence, it obviously wants its own shot at the world stage. And a bit of control of the region like current US control of North America with NAFTA and influence would be proof of a “powerful” China.

Some say that China would rather keep the US in the region. That they fear a rise of Japanese or South Korea. Although this may seem like a probably theory, empirics as well as a peer into the psychology of the nation and population seem to disprove this. China has obviously shown multiple shows of power to the United States: following with an active space program, ASATS, and aircraft carriers itself pretty much show that the feel that the US should get out of their backyard. And bitter resentment of western influence in their history is probably more telling than the Japanese invasion. I think it’s pretty obvious that the country wants regional power and want the US out. The real question is thus: Would they be malevolent?

My guess

I think that they wouldn’t be malevolent. With a move toward the capitalist impulse and little less control on the actions of the populace with regards with the economic system, I think that the Chinese are more interested in fame, glory, and power in the context of making history and spreading the language than destroying nations or colonization. Given that current Chinese actions are fairly militarily showing, these malevolent actions are not for the sake of being malevolent, but rather a challenge to the US: we can match you too.

Thus, if the Chinese were to gain hegemony or at least regional hegemony, they would not be controlling, but rather similar to how the US behaves now. This is probably a bad assumption, but I think that I can conclude that this would be true. A Chinese rise would not be the end if the world; it would be a fairly non aggressive rise.

However, how would the US respond?

The Western Hemisphere

What happens after China rises to power and how the US would respond is a lot more complicated. I think there are two possibilities: a shift to a multipolar balance of power between China and the United States as forward military presence declines. Or the US latches onto hegemonic power and a very similar conflict will probably erupt between the United States and the Chinese. And I think the latter is probably a better possibility.

If China were to rise, the US would probably accommodate their new power. However, the US will refuse to leave Asia. Keeping allied credibility, relationships, and deterrence with SoKo and Japan would be extremely important to maintain. The United States would not just leave the region up to the Chinese with no guarantees. Even if China’s rise would have peaceful intentions, the US nor any other country in Asia would believe that. The US would probably dig in for as long as possible and voila we have another Cold War. But it’s doubtful who would win this time: an overextended America or an ambitious China.

Conclusion

It is difficult to depict the outcome. Although I believe that a rising Cina would be fairly peaceful, the transition process will definitely be heated and probably make any sort of peaceful intention turn south. In this sense, the United States should open up with more diplomatic efforts with China, including them with consultation in foreign policy. In the mean time, the US should build up a dig in Japan and SoKo for the inevitable conflict in the future. The only question is if the United State can keep China satisfied.

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029 – US Hegemony and Global Power Relations: Now What?

Ever since the end of the Great Depression and the massive socio-economic power that the United States of America had gained from the industry movement during World War II, the USA has been the global power hegemon. With the world’s most advanced military prowess, dollar hegemony, as well as influence in the political processes of other countries, the USA is still the clear, number one global power. Even with the recession as well as the domestic chaos the USA has been facing,  other countries still look to the USA as the international leader. Yet, does that power come with a price?

The Good

Empirically, the world has always been a lot more peaceful with an international power at it’s helm. The Dark Ages began with the fall of the Roman/Byzantine empires, the world was comparatively calmer during periods of British power in the colonial eras, and today, we don’t see the same great power wars (the World Wars) that occurred during times where international relations were confused and polarity was the dominant paradigm in power relations. Bradley Thayer, a professor in security studies at Missouri State, wrote that American power has promoted things such as improved relations, economic growth, democratic promotion, and a laundry list of other benefits of American power. Thayer continues to state in his article, “In Defense o Primacy,” that an American retrentchment would “would lead to far greater instability and war in the world, imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy.” It would seem that American hegemony obviously seems like the best choice in comparison to transition conflicts and withdrawal. Today however, the same benign hegemony that the USA seemed to have in the 20th century is increasingly challenged.

The Bad

Today, multiple movements have sprung up in response to American interventionism. One the most poignant examples of this is probably the onset of terrorism and the American reaction to those actions. From the 9/11 to today, we can see that increased security measures as well as the War on Terror has lead to an almost paranoia regarding terrorism – especially domestically. Historically, acts of terrorism has never really garnered much of a large scale response compared to today’s security measures and wars. For example, the Branch Davidians never called into question security. However, this new wave of terrorism is not terrorism; it is a direct backlash against US power and hegemony. And these movements are just the tip of the iceberg of protests against US Hegemony.

Another prime example is the movement against Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa.  Many Okinawans are angry and starting protests against the forward deployed military forces on the island. Although the US is fairly liked  mainland Japan, the okinawans are extremely displeased to the point of influencing as well as bringing chaos to the political system with Hatoyama and Kan all resigning in period of two years. And these basing movements aren’t just centered in Okinawa; global protests are occurring that are directly challenging US forward military presence

Moreover, national governments are becoming increasingly annoyed with the US. China is looking to move onto the world stage with advances in GDP, education, military power, and space leadership. Other countries are also gaining power at the US expense. Although the United States of America is still considered the global hegemon – other countries can’t really do much in the face of US hard power other than asymmetrical poking – we are rapidly declining on the world stage, and it seems that nations like China are picking up the slack. Although we are still able to maintain good relations, it seems highly doubtful that other countries would find it in their best interests to listen to the United States if the trend continues.

End

However, an important question that must be asked before the US appeases critics of US hegemony. What is the alternative to US power. Some have suggested offshore balancing, others a new hegemon, and still others argue for a fully multipolar world. But what would happen in those transitions? Would the world fall into chaos as dollar, power, and military hegemony switch to a new power up for grabs? Or will it be as peaceful as the critics suggest? It seems clear that we should have an answer to thee questions BEFORE dismissing US power. In the meantime, the world won’t be as bad of a place to be in as some might suggest. We got this far. But, we’ll see if that peace can be maintained in today’s international climate.

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023 – After Tournament Stupor

So, we just finished hosting the Memorial High School tournament last night. (we are a semis bid in CX and a finals bid in LD) and I was extremely tired that I didn’t have the time to finish my post about China.

I did have time to play the intro to Stop this Train by John Mayer. Just a quick run through so ignore my mistakes; twas tired and bored. Plus the song was stuck in my head for a while so I had to get it out. Sigh. Still learning I guess. Oh, the thumb slap took forever to figure out, but I guess its pretty fun since you can keep playing whereas a normal slap would mute all strings at once for a split second (which is also cool). That light thing is my ceiling lamp. Capo on 1 just because I was bored of standard tuning and a little bit of Who Says/whatever at the end.

Guess I’m on some short writers block with college and debate mixing, but I’ll be back with some interesting posts. In my own opinion I guess.

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